Leaving the Door Open for Extremists

"The war against terrorism has entered a much more critical and complex phase that now involves helping to rectify the gross political and economic imbalances in the region," writes Ahmed Rashid. "It is going to need even greater commitment by the international community to meet this challenge, not less. This first anniversary is thus a time not to wallow in self-congratulations but to address the problems ahead." He elaborates,

Political instability in the region [Central Asia] is just what Al-Qaeda and other extremist Islamic groups want. An unstable Pakistan or a war between India and Pakistan that leads to Islamabad’s defeat could give the fundamentalists the opportunity they want to establish an Islamic state in Pakistan. The collapse of one or more Central Asian regimes, in the absence of democratic alternatives and a seething economic malaise, could give the Islamic extremists the opportunity to set up new terrorism command and control centers.

What is clearly needed is for the West to persuade these regimes that the war on terrorism also means that they have to change their ways.

The ideas of “nation building” or “a Marshall Plan for the region”—which are anathema in Washington—are essential if the West is to prevent further instability and catastrophe.

The wider implications of such a strategy would be profoundly bene-ficial for improving relations between the West and the Muslim world. However, none of this is likely to happen if the United States pushes ahead with its desire to attack Iraq without international support and while the Middle East is in flames. The Arab and Muslim world will erupt in anger, and terrorism may then become the only platform for many other groups to conduct a war against the United States.