US: The heir to British and Ottoman power in the Arab world

A scathing attack on the Bush administration's march to war from the WSWS includes an assessment worth quoting at length.

The military-diplomatic web site Stratfor.com recently published a blunt assessment of the real American interests at stake in a new Persian Gulf war. Stratfor.com has close ties to forces within the Bush administration and generally articulates its strategic outlook. The Internet site cited three overriding goals: seizing control of Iraqi oil, transforming Iraq into a base for further American military operations in the Middle East and Central Asia, and carrying out a bloodbath that traumatizes the Arab population and cements American-Israeli domination of the region.

Stratfor.com declared:

“The decision to attack Iraq grew from psychological and strategic needs. Psychologically, Washington wants to redefine how Arabs view the United States; the goal is fear and respect. Strategically, the United States wants to occupy Iraq in order to control the pivot of the Middle East: From an occupied Iraq, it can exert force throughout the region. The assumption has been that a victory in Iraq would redefine the dynamic in the Arab world. Some Arab governments, such as that in Kuwait, have welcomed this evolution while others, such as Saudi Arabia, dread it. All understand that a US-occupied Iraq would change the region decisively. The United States would become, unambiguously, the heir to British and Ottoman power in the Arab world.

“Oil would be one lever of that power. If the United States establishes control over Iraq’s oil supplies—the second largest in the world—oil prices could take a dramatic dive, and Arab states would be deprived of the leverage they now employ within OPEC to shape oil policies. Oil-rich Arab nations—first and foremost, Saudi Arabia—probably could not keep their economies afloat. Economic realities might achieve what popular indignation could not—regime change.

“Then there is Israel. The defeat of Iraq, one of Israel’s most vocal foes, would leave the Jewish state and Washington the dominant players in the region, forcing Arab governments to live under the threat of economic and military destruction. Arab leaders also fear that an Israel emboldened by Iraq’s defeat would push Palestinians farther from the West Bank and Gaza Strip into neighboring countries. A forced exodus of this type would create a humanitarian catastrophe of epic proportions, one that Arab governments would not be able to handle.”