Iraq on the verge of crisis, says the CIA

Someone has leaked word of a top-secret report by the CIA on the situation in Iraq to the press. The Guardian provides a summary of the report, along with an assessment of the impact it's having in Washington:

The report, an "appraisal of situation" commissioned by the CIA director, George Tenet, and written by the CIA station chief in Baghdad, said that the insurgency was gaining ground among the population, and already numbers in the tens of thousands.

One military intelligence assessment now estimates the insurgents' strength at 50,000. Analysts cautioned that such a figure was speculative, but it does indicate a deep-rooted revolt on a far greater scale than the Pentagon had led the administration to believe.

An intelligence source in Washington familiar with the CIA report described it as a "bleak assessment that the resistance is broad, strong and getting stronger".

"It says we are going to lose the situation unless there is a rapid and dramatic change of course," the source said.

"There are thousands in the resistance - not just a core of Ba'athists. They are in the thousands, and growing every day. Not all those people are actually firing, but providing support, shelter and all that."

Although, the report was an internal CIA document it was widely circulated within the administration. Even more unusually, it carried an endorsement by Paul Bremer, the civilian head of the US-run occupation of Iraq - a possible sign that he was seeking to bypass his superiors in the Pentagon and send a message directly to President George Bush on how bad the situation has become.

The Independent reports that this foreshadows a "political shake-up" to come, which the NY Times confirms with a story about how the Bush administration is "moving up its timetable for self-government in Iraq," vowing to "try to hold elections in the first half of next year and turn civilian authority over to a temporary government before a new constitution is written."

To put it another way: the Bushies are hitting the panic button.