Iraq: "Too Uncertain To Call"

Anthony Cordesman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has released a new study on how things are going in Iraq. These are some of its major findings, according to the Independent:

• "It says attacks on Americans by Sunni Iraqis will continue 'until the day the US leaves.'"



• "The Iraqi resistance movement is believed to have a war chest of up to $1bn - with a further $3bn hidden in Syria - and it is paying between $25 and $500 for each attack on US forces." (sidenote: on to Syria!)



• "95 per cent of the threat is from former regime loyalists and that suicide bombings are being carried out largely by foreigners."



• "US soldiers are dying because of the ideological approach of the administration, and 'four years into office, the Bush national security team is not a team.'"



• "the administration [is] preparing the ground for 'a defeat by underplaying the risks, issuing provocative and jingoistic speeches, and minimising real-world costs and risks.'"



• "The report concludes that there is an overall problem with the US administration's advocacy of 'democracy' in the Middle East. 'It is largely advocating undefined slogans, not practical and balanced specifics.' It was often seen as showing contempt for Arab societies, or as a prelude to new US efforts at regime change."

Despite such a grim assessment, the Independent reports that there "is little in the track record of the US administration to suggest that Dr Cordesman's recommendations will be carried out, particularly at a time when Washington wants to show results on the ground in Iraq in the months before the presidential election."

After all, Cordesman's July study, which warned the administration that it had a three-month window to assert control in Iraq or risk facing a "Third Gulf war," was generally ignored. This one will be, too.