Election afterglow wears off

Knight Ridder's Hannah Allam reports that many of the worst fears about the Iraqi elections are coming true:

Two weeks of intense insurgent violence have made it crystal clear that Iraq's parliamentary elections, hailed in late January as a triumph for democracy, haven't helped to heal the country's deep divisions. They may have made them worse.

The historic election sheared off a thin facade of wartime national unity and reinforced ethnic and sectarian tensions that have plagued Iraq for centuries. Iraqis immediately began playing the roles the election results delivered to them: victorious Shiite Muslim, assertive Kurd, disaffected Sunni Arab. Within those groups lies a mosaic of other splits, especially between secularists and Islamists vying for Iraq's soul.

With little social cohesion, violence has soared, fueled by anger over foreign occupation and religious differences, while a semi-sovereign, disjointed government has taken over with little ability to control or appeal to groups behind the killings. At least 400 Iraqis have died in two weeks. U.S. casualties are also up. According to Icasualties.org, a Web site that tracks Iraq coalition casualties, 46 American service members died under fire in April, and 28 have died so far in May.

This piece comes on the heels of a widely-cited story from Newsday suggesting it's fair to say that Iraq is embroiled in civil war now.

Some may be tempted to see this as a regrettable, but inevitable outcome of Hussein's displacement. Indeed, analysts of a variety of stripes have long been predicting or expressing concern about a future break-up of the country. What's often missing from their discussion is the primary role the US presence plays in fomenting divisions and increasing tensions.

The brutalities of the occupation, coupled with the Americans' inabililty to provide security and restore civil services, makes the conciliatory process necessary for parliamentary procedures impossible. How can Iraqis have any confidence in "democracy" when their benevolent bestowers are so clearly trying to influence the construction of the government (Hello, Mr. Chalabi) and show such a clear ignorance of and insensitivity to their basic needs? Life is a cut-throat game of survival and power grabs in much of Iraq right now, and that's not despite the occupation. It's because of it.