Long way to go in Iraq?

How long will it take to quell the insurgency in Iraq? A British think tank says at least five years. Juan Cole says perhaps 15.

It's worth noting that Cole says the US will probably have to stick around till then. I respectfully disagree. There's very little evidence to suggest that a continued US presence will help the situation calm down; there's plenty of evidence suggesting that the occupation only makes things worse, as I've mentioned on a few occasions recently.

I admit that there aren't any easy answers on the table, but the one thing that would change the dynamics of the ongoing violence in Iraq is if the US announced a timetable for withdrawal. A reasonable one, not some hazy prediction that's more about years than months.

Of course, this doesn't look likely to happen anytime soon. The House just shot down the first vote on withdrawal and the antiwar movement remains demobilized.

So what now? Steve Shalom has a detailed response to this question.