Abbas' Mission Improbable

Mahmoud Abbas recently returned to the West Bank following what was, by most accounts, a warm and productive meeting with President Bush at the White House. Several commentators are hopeful that this could be the beginning of a new era for US-Palestinian relations.

Mouin Rabbani and Chris Toensing are much less optimistic, though:

By all accounts, Mahmoud Abbas and his advisers left Washington positively delighted. On the one hand, they ascribed real meaning to Bush’s pronouncements. Secondly, given that Abbas was elected less on the basis of wholesale Palestinian identification with his agenda than the belief that he can achieve it, the PA delegation feels the summit provided enough evidence to validate and sustain this belief among Palestinians. “We have noticed and felt an American commitment,” Abbas explained to the Washington Post after the summit. “Perhaps this commitment manifests itself through the [expanded] mandate of General Ward.”

The PA’s enthusiasm seems at best premature. Alongside his mentions of Israeli obligations and the 1949 armistice lines, Bush also confirmed suspicions that his definition of Palestinian freedom is more about the trappings of democracy than full Palestinian sovereignty or an end to Israeli occupation. Responding to a reporter’s question about control over Gaza’s airspace after Israel’s scheduled disengagement, he stated, “Now as a democracy evolves and people see that this is a government fully capable of sustaining democratic institutions and adhering to rule of law and transparency and puts strong anti-corruption devices in place, answers to the will of the people, than it becomes easier to deal with issues such as airspace.”

Yet it is precisely because Abbas needs to respond to the will of his people, for whom national liberation either trumps personal freedom or is inseparable from it, that Abbas’ forecast seems rather bleak. Having seen Abbas to the airport without making concrete commitments on the real issues, Washington’s subsequent failure to deliver on its implicit promises in the weeks and months to come could well constitute a critical turning point for the Palestinian leader. For just as real success at the White House would have significantly empowered Abbas in Palestine, so failure will give his rivals -- who are to be found chiefly within the ranks of Fatah -- a vital shot in the arm. If they play their cards well and form the right alliances, they can exploit his inability to deliver to eventually bring him down a second time.

Should Abbas fall once more, the implications are potentially enormous. Because the Palestinian political system has only begun the process of transformation from one dominated by a single individual to one led by institutions, Abbas is more likely to be replaced by fragmentation and chaos than either Marwan Barghouti or Hamas.

I think their analysis is spot-on. Every "move towards peace" that has not dealt with the fundamental issues -- Israel's occupation and settlement policies -- has failed. There is no indication that Bush is willing to head Sharon off at the pass this time around, either. It seems that whatever positive steps have been made in recent months will again lead to raised expectations and the eventual crushing realisation that the US is unwilling to address, in any serious manner, the basic needs of the Palestinians.