Iran's timeline

Yet again, the NY Times reminds us that, by the US government's own best estimate, Iran is at least 5 to 10 years away from being able to produce a nuclear weapon. Rest be assured, if you hear radically smaller estimates, you're probably in the midst of propaganda.

This reiteration follows on yesterday's State Department announcement that Iran was "16 days" away from a capability to build a weapon. That seemed particularly outlandish, and Bloomberg News' reporting of it didn't help. As Paul Woodward points out,

"16 days" doesn't mean by April 28, 2006. It means 16 days once the Iranians have 50,000 centrifuges. Iran so far has 164 centrifuges and has told the IAEA that it plans to construct 3,000 more next year. Rademaker thus went on to say, "We calculate that a 3,000-machine cascade could produce enough uranium to build a nuclear weapon within 271 days." Still, "16 days" was good for a headline.

I didn't adequately parse this story yesterday when I mentioned it. Sorry about that, but at least you now have clarification.