Whittling away at Palestine

In the LA Times, Sandy Tolan opines about Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's visit to Washington:

When Ehud Olmert meets with President Bush on Tuesday, he will present a new page for the Middle East atlas, in which, according to recent reports, Israel will have pulled up stakes from some of the occupied West Bank but will still control large portions of it. Palestinians would end up with less than 20% of their original dream for the whole of Palestine.

Olmert will try to convince the White House that in the absence of a "partner for peace," this Israeli plan to draw its final borders, and to wall off his people from the Palestinians, is in the best interests of peace and stability in the region.

Yet the implementation of Olmert's unilateral "convergence" plan could have the opposite effect. By annexing West Bank lands (including the giant, densely populated settlements in Palestinian territory outside Jerusalem), claiming Jerusalem's Old City and its holy sites exclusively as Israel's own, drawing a new "security border" along the Jordan Valley and, according to David Makovsky of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, keeping the military occupation in place in the West Bank at least for the time being, convergence would essentially kill the Palestinian dream of self-determination. Given the history of the last six decades, this plan is unlikely to lead to peace or stability.

Fortunately for Israel and the US, they care not for either "peace" or "stability."

Still, Tolan urges,

U.S. officials should be especially careful not to embrace a unilateral and incendiary "solution," especially at a moment when it is too early to be sure which direction the Hamas-run Palestinian government will take. Many observers hope that the more moderate elements in the government of Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh will prevail, that talks can be restarted and that Hamas may ultimately accept Israel's right to exist.

Unfortunately, as I've been noting recently, this is an absurd expectation when you're trying to bring about "moderation" via strangulation and starvation.

Additionally, lamenting that the US may "embrace a unilateral and incendiary" course of action is sort of pointless. That cow's been out of the barn for quite a while.

Besides that quibble, what Tolan says here is worth noting:

Under convergence...Israel would retain 8% of the West Bank for expansion of three large settlement blocs, and more land for a "security border" in the Jordan Valley. At least 60,000 settlers would be removed from more remote settlements in the occupied territories to the large settlement blocs on the other side of the "security barrier" that Israel has been building (but still on the West Bank). Palestinians in the remaining portion of the West Bank would live between the "security border" and the "security barrier."

The convergence plan also would deny the Palestinians' dream of having East Jerusalem, including the Old City's Haram al Sharif, the third holiest site in Islam, as the capital of their state. Although returning some parts of East Jerusalem to Arab ownership, a fixed border along Olmert's lines would divide neighborhoods and families, and Israel would retain control over the Old City, including its holy sites. These are red lines for both Palestinians and Muslims worldwide and a central reason for the collapse of the talks at Camp David.

Given its details, it is hard to understand how convergence could lead to long-term peace and stability, to say nothing of fairness. Western diplomats have already begun expressing concerns that a unilateral solution will not last. "The Israelis want to build a wall and imagine that there are no people behind it," Marc Otte, the European Union's special representative for the Mideast peace process, told the Israeli paper Haaretz. "That is an illusion. Everything will come back to them. You cannot lock the door and throw away the key."

Shit, Israel's been trying to do that for nearly forty years...

In all likelihood, the US will give its blessing and Israel will show no qualms about moving forward, much like when Sharon was given the green light for the Gaza withdrawal.

As usual, it goes without saying that "convergence" would be a disaster; that is, if you care about things like human rights, self-determination, and justice. The Americans and Israelis crafting policy clearly do not.