Rising Crisis in Lebanon?

Marianne Stigset reports on the assassination of prominent anti-Syrian journalist Samir Kassir in Beirut yesterday, saying it portends ominous signs for post-election Lebanon:

The murder marks a low-point in the worsening political environment in Lebanon, where the first parliamentary elections held since the Syrian military withdrawal got under way Sunday.

The rallying up to the elections has been marked by the disintegration of the anti-Syrian opposition movement.

The election is being held under a controversial electoral law devised in 2000 under heavy Syrian meddling. The law sets out large voting districts, which Christian politicians argue does not give adequate representation to Lebanon's smaller communities.

The issue divided the opposition movement, with some parties calling for a boycott of the elections, and others benefiting from the law calling for the vote to go ahead.

The subsequent political wheeling and dealing brought unusual political bedfellows. Former general Aoun, who recently returned to Lebanon after 14 years in exile and has made a political career out of combating the Syrian presence in Lebanon, announced Wednesday his alliance with pro-Syrian MP Talal Arslan in several electoral districts. But he also called on his followers to boycott the elections held in Beirut.

She adds:

The disappointing aftermath of the spring "independence uprising" has been seized upon by some analysts as testimony to Lebanon's structural problems, which they say lie deeper than a Syrian political and military dominance.

"Syrian occupation was a symptom of deeper crises in the Lebanese political system," Sateh Noureddine and Laurie King-Irani wrote in a recent Middle East Report analysis. "The celebrations of Syria's departure in Martyrs' Square rarely touched upon these crises, which center on questions of national identity, inter-communal conflict, accountability of war time atrocities, and nation-building."

This is unfortunate, but consistent with what serious observers of Lebanese politics were pointing out when American triumphalists were crowing about an "Arab Spring" a few months ago.

I think it's a good thing that Syria is out now, although I absolutely detest those who selectively champion the end of occupations. If it's good for people to be free from foreign interference in this one case, then surely the other pressing occupations in the Mid East (Palestine and Iraq) should be met with equally vocal calls for withdrawal. But, as we all know, consistency is rarely the hallmark of political charlatans.

Getting back to Lebanon, it's clear that the Syrian withdrawal hasn't done much to resolve the long-simmering tensions between Christians and Muslims. If anything, the evaporation of a foreign presence means that the alliances that developed since 1991 will be remapped through a process that may be extemely messy at points. The situation is far more complex -- and difficult -- than Bush's acolytes would have you believe.